TPP nondilatent China's foreign trade is facing a
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after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) ten years of development spurt, China began with the organization together, feeling the International Trade System Reconstruction process of" marginalized "pressure.
???????? Asia-Pacific region, in the "American high standard," the lead, covering the largest economy in the United States and the third-largest economy, Japan's TPP (Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement) negotiations, recently seems to have entered a crucial stage; while RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) Chinese participation, far not reached the stage of substantive negotiations.
???????? WTO headquarters in Geneva, China could become more apparent in recent years, continued to feel the rise of "American Standard" shock lead multilateral trade agreements (Plurilateral Trade Agreements) of. Including the ITA (Information Technology Agreement) China has been involved in, with the intention to participate in the TISA (GATS), including a series of negotiations, are challenging the bottom line of China's existing system.
???????? many international scholars tend to believe that China's rise, along with the decline of the United States, the process of friction will be inevitable. But from the perspective of the overall situation of the world economy, "American Standard" behind the rise of regional initiatives, but also has its own slow WTO reform, 18 years is difficult to achieve effective agreements, countries and thus the flow factor.
???????? "First Financial Daily" correspondent in an exclusive interview with the TPP, the active participation of the Minister of the country after the Canadian and New Zealand found RCEP trade, regardless of whether China wishes to join "American Standard" TPP These members have already decided not to expansion, hoping the rules after the agreement reached, then consider the request to join China and other countries.
???????? past, China has been applying to join WTO Forced liberalization measures such as domestic reforms. Now, in addition to efforts in the multilateral field, China how to unify the country to open a different understanding, further reform in difficult areas, which occupy the initiative in the new era of international rule-making, and access to development opportunities, has become a strategy must be made choice.
???????? TPP now will not accept China
???????? from the United States to lead the TPP, the Chinese domestic dispute did not stop.
????????Some experts argued that the negotiations should be added immediately, and to participate in the decision-making process; another part of the experts believe that these rules directed at the deep institutional problems of the Chinese economy, is difficult to quickly join. Worried that include zero tariffs, SOE reform, labor rights, environmental protection, intellectual property, etc., each of which at China's sensitive points.
???????? but who coordinated several factions understand the progress of negotiations on the "First Financial Daily" correspondent said that this debate is not meaningful in some way, because the United States is not in this stage to accept China.
???????? interview with the TPP trade ministers also tactfully expressed this view.
???????? Minister of International Trade Canada Ed? Belfast (Ed Fast), told Reporters said they were very clear that they expect future growth TPP, a lot of people can join. But now, their main task is to reach an agreement as soon as possible to complete the negotiations. Then form a very clear template so that other members can join.
???????? Zealand Trade Minister Tim? Groser (Tim Groser) formulation is that no member of hope, regardless of like a big country like China, or a small country like Tonga, in the near future join the TPP negotiations. Because the existing 12 members are working, regardless of success or failure, and hope to reach agreement first, talk about the possibility of other countries to join.
???????? regional trade initiatives in the country, in addition to the economic benefits that greater political strategic considerations, in-depth strategic mutual trust is the basic premise. From this perspective, China and the U.S. should be at the negotiating table to conclude the FTA this intimate level of interaction, but also not realistic.
???????? But from another perspective, TPP itself can not reach agreement also faces an uncertain future. From the beginning of an ambitious agreement at the end of last year claiming to reach an agreement late last year declared that this year, to now even an interview with reporters in Geneva negotiations are widely recognized by the elite circle of Tim? Groser also difficult to give even the most fuzzy time expected.
????????fact, this concern is understandable: the United States and Japan's biggest economy could amount to achieve a negotiated agreement involving breakthrough, the key point is to promote the TPP. However, agricultural and automotive core interests of both sides were involved in breaking years of difficult, very difficult to reach an agreement, I am afraid.
???????? From the perspective of the last two rounds of intensive negotiations, either in Washington or in Singapore, the core differences remain difficult to solve. Local time on May 31, TPP meeting in Washington. The main focus of this round of talks about the beef and pork tariffs, the United States hopes when meat imports surge, tariffs can be increased to the original level, but for the "Japan-US Security Treaty," the parties are not in a condition to adjust concessions , so I decided to start negotiations again in Tokyo.
???????? can imagine, another core issue, namely the U.S. automotive market opening, will also face serious challenges.
????????US Relations Research Center, Tsinghua University, Zhou Shijian, a senior researcher, told reporters commented that, on the one hand, the production of pork and beef farmers is an important voting bloc Abe campaign; on the other hand, the United States turn the midterm elections approaching, trade negotiators may be authorized to negotiate space is limited. Therefore, before the end of the election, almost certainly fail to reach an agreement.
???????? but a noteworthy fact that, although the timetable for reaching a comprehensive agreement is currently unknown, but at least to reach substantive results still entirely possible. Currently, the TPP negotiations in order to update the monthly rate is fast forward. Determined from the United States and Japan plus (Canada) core differences, the U.S. and Japan to reduce differences, and the differences are now seeking a breakthrough in agricultural products from tariff concessions do not agree with Japan, focused on the "Japan-US Security Treaty," protective measures.
???????? Whatever eventually reached a high standard, China has been blocking such a high standard in addition to large markets, the negative impact will inevitably suffer. Even be said that after this politically sensitive stage, once fulfilled TPP, Chinese think of adding a high standard has been reached in the negotiations, the difficulty will be comparable to the "second WTO."
???????? Chinese should do something
???????? after reaching package of agreements, in addition to the Doha intensive political organization in Geneva to restart the Doha Round negotiations, WTO Director-General of Brazilian Azevedo resumed global leader for several months. " willingness canvassing "tour.
???????? trip scheduled in May of the most active in the global economy in East Asia, although he visited Japan and South Korea have given a high level of positive feedback, but he must face the embarrassment is The main focus of the negotiations has been placed on the country's large trade areas.
???????? while progress has been insisting behind the multilateral, bilateral regional agreements slow China, open world map, also found in other countries involved in regional trade agreements, has spread from the point into a network.
???????? China has signed 12 free trade agreements, there are six in the talk. However, the level of development of the FTA is still low in China, committed to mutual investment, intellectual property protection and other aspects much. If you do not include Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions, the trade volume between China and the trade partners of the total foreign trade accounted for only 12 percent, far below the U.S. 40%, EU 28%, 35% in Korea, 81% in Mexico.
???????? According to WTO statistics, the current global notified to the WTO and the implementation of the free trade area has reached 247, of which a considerable number of FTA is done in recent years. More than half of global trade has trade arrangements among the FTA to be carried out in each area, and is growing at a faster rate further.
???????? most of the FTA, starting at a high dependence on foreign trade, less populated small country, built to high standards, unified market to help stabilize the domestic economy. In Korea, for example in East Asia the same, since the 1998 financial crisis, Korea in various fields to achieve a greater degree of openness, with the world's most important economies have signed a free trade agreement. South Korea and the United States which established the FTA, the standard has not less than TPP.
???????? With the gradual participation in the United States and promote these FTA began to have worldwide significance. Among these, the U.S. TPP Asia-Pacific region for the most attention, efforts to promote maximum.
???????? while in the world of all bilateral and regional trade agreements are being formed, but also because the world's largest economy, the United States, China, Japan, the EU's involvement and commitment and heavily dependent on overseas the same degree of openness small country market, TPP, RCEP, and TTIP (Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement) will look so world-class influence.
???????? current FTA is no longer limited to the traditional issues of traditional trade in services, investment, etc., but extended to intellectual property rights, monetary policy, government procurement, environment, labor, state-owned enterprises such as Agenda 21. The focus, the traditional trade negotiations is to talk about border measures, tariffs, non-tariff, open, market access negotiations focus now is to coordinate regulations and standards within national borders, measures.
???????? specific to the Asia-Pacific region over the past 20 years, East Asian countries signed a total of 63 free trade agreements, accounting for 1/3 of the world. Among them, the vast majority is done in the last 10 years.
???????? some extent, "American Standard" intervention is also conform to this trend as. Further, these standards, a considerable part of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CCP finds the direction of reform is quite fit, but the rhythm of FTA negotiations with China, but not necessarily completely in tune.
???????? newly appointed Chinese Ambassador to WTO in mid-last year on behalf of Yu Jianhua analysts believe that the current represented by the WTO global trade rules, to a certain extent, has lagged behind the new changes in international trade patterns, also lags behind the demands of the relevant national interests more closely with the reality of the economic and trade links between the various countries are to some extent out of touch.
???????? nearly 10 years, while the industrial structure and competitiveness of each country has undergone profound changes, on the other hand with the deepening of the global value chain development, countries increasingly close economic ties. However, the multilateral trade rules still stuck in 1994 reached Uruguay trade agreement, its depth and breadth are unable to meet the current needs of industry and the development of all countries trade with each other more closely linked. States eager to further strengthen the integration of markets through free trade zone, and focus on new areas of cooperation to develop new rules.
???????? For China, while it is impossible to conclude FTA completely intimate with the United States, but can promote domestic reforms, based on the progressive docking investment, trade in services, such as the "American standard ", so progressive breakthrough.
???????? open the Third Plenary Session of the Universal Declaration of eighteen, so at home and abroad have seen a positive signal. Externally, the Sino-US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) is turned to the "negative list" and "national treatment before admission" as the basis for substantive negotiations. Feasibility studies FTAAP (Asia FTA) proposed in APEC also fully supported, and the formation of Qingdao Declaration on establishing a timetable; internally, Shanghai FTA also explore and try a variety of institutional.
???????? For China, a unified understanding of the implementation of this step is crucial. In large part, the progress of Shanghai FTA is the common understanding of the way, and the implementation of the signal substantive reform. How in the region involved in many ministries to coordinate policy reform measures explicit form can be copied as soon as possible, the "negative list" and reform the actual landing, will be given an important sign of confidence in the outside world.
